Introduction

The Indus Water Treaty is one of the most significant and enduring international water-sharing agreements, signed between India and Pakistan in 1960. Despite decades of political hostility and multiple wars, this treaty has withstood the test of time — ensuring the flow and distribution of one of the region’s most vital resources: water.

Before we delve deeper, it's essential to understand the geography that shapes this treaty.

The Rivers of the Indus Basin

The treaty concerns the waters of the Indus River and its five major tributaries: Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. These rivers are classified into two groups:

• Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab

• Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej

While the eastern rivers primarily flow through India and end within Indian territory, the western rivers pass through India but flow largely into Pakistan before eventually merging into the Arabian Sea.

Partition and the Water Crisis

The seeds of the treaty were sown at the time of the Partition of India in 1947. Punjab — the land of five rivers — was divided into East Punjab (India) and West Punjab (Pakistan). While land could be divided with borders, rivers could not. The partition left many irrigation canals in Pakistan dependent on headworks and sources now located in India.

Initially, a temporary water-sharing agreement was signed on December 20, 1947, under which India agreed to allow uninterrupted flow to Pakistan until March 31, 1948. However, on April 1, 1948, after the agreement expired, India halted water supply from the Upper Bari Doab and Dipalpur canals. This led to a crisis that nearly escalated into a serious diplomatic conflict.

Soon after, talks resumed, and India restored the flow, but the incident highlighted the urgent need for a permanent water-sharing agreement to avoid future conflicts.

Birth of the Indus Water Treaty

The idea for an international solution came from David E. Lilienthal, a noted American engineer and administrator. In 1949, he proposed the creation of a Joint Water Authority for scientific and equitable management of the entire Indus Basin.

This proposal gained international attention, prompting the World Bank (then called the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) to step in. Eugene Black, the then-president of the World Bank, offered to mediate between India and Pakistan.

Both countries, exhausted by war and wary of another potential conflict, agreed to the World Bank's initiative. Beginning in 1951, several rounds of technical and diplomatic negotiations were held, involving eminent Indian experts like N.D. Gulhati and S.D. Mehta, as well as high-level engineers from Pakistan.

After nearly nine years of intensive dialogue, the Indus Water Treaty was finally signed on September 19, 1960, by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Field Marshal Ayub Khan, with World Bank President Eugene Black acting as guarantor.

Key Provisions of the Treaty

1. Allocation of Rivers:

   • Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) were allocated to Pakistan.

   • Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) were allocated to India.

2. Usage Rights:

   • India was granted unrestricted use of eastern rivers for irrigation, domestic, and hydroelectric purposes.

   • On western rivers, India could construct “run-of-the-river” hydro projects without significant water storage.

3. Permanent Indus Commission:

   • A bilateral commission was established to oversee implementation, resolve disputes, and meet annually.

4. Dispute Resolution Mechanism:

   • Issues would first be addressed bilaterally.

   • If unresolved, they could be escalated to neutral experts or international arbitration under the World Bank framework.

This treaty is often hailed as one of the most successful examples of water diplomacy, having survived major conflicts — including the wars of 1965, 1971, and 1999 — without being revoked.

Emerging Challenges and Criticism

Despite its longevity, the treaty has faced criticism — particularly from Pakistan — over India's hydroelectric projects on western rivers, such as:

• Baglihar Dam (Chenab)

• Kishanganga Project (a tributary of Jhelum)

Pakistan claims these projects reduce downstream water flow, impacting agriculture and hydropower. India, however, has consistently argued that its actions fall within treaty limits, as these are “run-of-the-river” projects.

Several of these disputes have been reviewed by neutral experts and international forums, as outlined in the treaty.

India's Growing Assertiveness

Over the years, many Indian experts and policymakers have criticized the treaty for being disproportionately favorable to Pakistan. They argue:

• India has limited rights over western rivers that originate in its own territory.

• Hydroelectric development in regions like Jammu & Kashmir has been hampered.

• Continuing the treaty despite Pakistan’s repeated hostilities undermines India’s strategic interests.

Following major terrorist attacks such as Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019), the Indian government announced a review of the treaty. In 2023, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking renegotiation — a first in the treaty’s history. India claimed that Pakistan had been politicizing technical issues, violating the spirit of cooperation.

Meanwhile, Pakistan approached the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, objecting to certain Indian projects. India boycotted the proceedings, calling them inconsistent with the treaty’s dispute resolution process.

Strategic Projects in Progress

India is now actively pursuing hydropower and water management projects on western rivers within treaty limits, including:

• Pakal Dul Dam on the Chenab

• Ratle Hydroelectric Project

• Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project

India aims to maximize its rights under the treaty without breaching any terms, adopting a more assertive stance in global and regional diplomacy.

What If the Treaty is Suspended?

Suspending or abrogating the treaty could have dire consequences for Pakistan:

1. Agriculture

• Over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on irrigation from Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — all originating in India.

• Reduced water supply could cause droughts, crop failures, and food insecurity, especially in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.

2. Power Generation

• Many Pakistani hydro plants rely on these rivers. Reduced flow would worsen power shortages, affecting daily life and industry.

3. Drinking Water

• Urban populations in several regions rely on these rivers. Water scarcity could lead to sanitation crises and internal unrest.

4. Economic Instability

• With agriculture and power hit, Pakistan's already fragile economy could suffer. Unemployment, inflation, and social unrest may follow.

5. International Fallout

• Pakistan might accuse India of “water terrorism” on global forums. However, as long as India remains within treaty provisions, such claims may not hold.

• Severe tensions could arise, potentially increasing military risks and diplomatic estrangement.

• Pakistan may be forced to seek expensive alternatives like desalination or cooperation with third countries like China or Iran — an economically challenging path.

Conclusion

The Indus Water Treaty is more than just a water-sharing agreement. It represents a rare example of cooperation between two hostile neighbors. Its endurance for over six decades — through wars, conflicts, and accusations — reflects both its robustness and necessity.

While the treaty is now facing new geopolitical pressures, its core remains a beacon of how rational negotiation and international mediation can avert conflict over critical natural resources.

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